Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
